market update after the close on 6/20/2011

Well, most of the guys I track are EXTREMELY bearish on the market.  They have been for a few weeks and with each day that passes they seem to get more bearish … which is why I am still am nervous and somewhat cautious right now.

With that said though … today was another good day showing healing going on in the market.  In my afternoon analysis, I still see the same data that I saw last week, that the market needed to hit the 200dma and once it did … it decided that we were at the bottom. 

Now whether this is a short term bottom OR whether we will have a nice up from here is still to be seen, but when I look under the hood at the market internals … the market looks slightly better every day.   Basically, we have a sick patient that seems to be looking stronger every day, but still lying in bed looking icky.  

As I said last Monday 6/13 (I emailed you as it happened), it seems like we hit the bottom and are slowly coming back up.  By the way, it is actually very healthy if we move up ‘slowly’ as we are seeing now.  Time usually is required to put in a good bottom (and top).  Again … remember my example from last week about the guy that falls off a roof and takes awhile to get back up.  A slow move up gives the bears (that are short) time to get scared and get out, and the bulls time to get more comfortable that we are at a bottom and start putting money back in.  vs … a ‘fast’ up move which causes the bears to short more (similar to ‘buying on the dip’) and usually another larger down move from there.

I am still 100% long (from last Friday June 10^th as you know) and holding it with a slight gain (2.75%) from then.  Time will tell if MY analysis is correct OR if most of the guys I look up to are right … Murphy’s law says that they are right and I'm not J, but for now I follow my own path.  I always trust the numbers more than someone’s opinion … even if they are people that have a long track record of doing this.  Of course, I have tight stops in place … just in case all heck breaks loose again J

Hope your day is going great!!