Tuesday, May 15, 2012

things look broken in the stock market

The market looks very broken.  For the past four days, we have had strong openings following by a weak closing.  This generally equates to bargain hunters seeing a good deal overnight, then at a certain price point large sellers are coming in to unload more of their shares.

A healthy market generally will do the opposite, open down and then close at or near the high of the day.  The big players generally wait until the end of the day to gauge the action of the market in order to put on larger plays.  As a result, end of day action is more important to analyze than the first part of the day.

One could argue that the morning bullish action shows that clearly there is interest in making this market go higher, but this constant eroding is eventually going to wear out the bulls and show them that more downside is coming.

I keep waiting for a solid bounce to occur, but with every passing day of poor performance ... it is starting to look like we need to drop a ways further before a decent bounce could occur.

Looking at the thirty minute chart, we see the the market is really struggling to spend any time above the 50 period moving average.  almost every day it gathers the strength to touch it and even spen a few hours above it, but it never holds long enough (overnight) to show any confidence in the buyers.

Definitely best to be out of this market until a respectable bounce occurs.  At which time gauging the strength and follow through of the bounce will help us to identify if there is any justification to get back in the market.

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