Friday, December 20, 2013

Market Wrap - week ending 12/20/2013

Hello everyone.  This week proved interesting for sure.  Everything looked dire in the early part of the week, until the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday their decision to end the uncertainty about its quantitative easing strategy, which the market clearly applauded.  The latter two days of the week resulted in big up moves. 

As I mentioned previously a few times, uncertainly is the market’s biggest enemy, and having clarity on the Federal Reserve’s tapering plan removed a lot of questions on people’s minds, allowing the market to continue on its’ current trajectory.

Things certainly continue to remain frothy.  In fact the latest Investors Intelligence survey shows just 14.3% of newsletter editors as still being bearish, the lowest level since March 1987.  This is not an indicator that can be used to trade with, but it is unsettling the level of bullishness for sure.  As I mentioned in the past few weekly emails, the market can remain elevated or ‘overbought’ for much longer than anyone can predict, so trying to argue or time the market based on overbought indicators tends to be a sobering experience. 

Obviously, looking over history, we won’t continue higher forever, we are clearly overdue for a correction, and it is important to remember the historical facts and not get too bullish.  The market will correct, but it might still have significant more upside before it does, time will tell. 
The next few weeks will be interesting as most investors take the time off.  The markets can move very easily and manipulation is usually highest in these low volume time periods.  I look forward to seeing if we can continue this upward directory through the end of the year.  It certainly seems like that is the path we are on with so much bullishness.

Hope you have a wonderful and safe weekend.


Randall Mauro
Resnn Investments, LLC

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