Friday, January 13, 2012

short term top or buying opportunity?

Looking at the past four days price action, we might have seen stalling action, but not necessarily bearish action.  Although the bears have had plenty of opportunity to get 'busy', they are currently sitting on the sidelines which is helping the bulls.  But, there doesn't seem to be any buying occurring as we are stalled at the same price we were at 4 days ago.

One problem is that we closed under the price from the past few days and now we go home on a Friday with most longs that bought in a losing position.  They will sit here all weekend and wonder if they made a mistake and if they should exit on Monday morning.

Monday, January 9, 2012

rally running out of steam??

very little action has happened since one week ago, we are certainly consolidating as prices is getting tighter and tighter.  What that means from a psychology point of view is that

1) there seems to be an agreement on what is the correct value of the market at this moment, both bulls and bears are not fighting too much.

2) people are taking a wait and see approach and will follow the herd whichever direction it goes.

There certainly is indecision.

Friday, January 6, 2012

a good week

This past week was very constructive for the market, as it is consolidating and preparing for the next big move.  Short term it looks bullish, but we do have some overhead resistance that will need to be taken out.  So, although most of the data points to up, until a break occurs caution is warranted.

I am mostly sitting and waiting for a break to occur.  Have both long and short positions (more long than short), and will wait for resolution to decide on my next positions.

But ... all in all, I am seeing bullish activity as we base here.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

seeing constructive action

Today's price action was constructive on the QQQ and SPY.  IWM is lagging a bit, but I am starting to like what I see.  We seem to be chiseling away at the previous high made back in October, slowly making healthy advances toward that level.

Although I am still holding shorts and in fact bought some near the close today, it seems like we are moving away from a neutral status and more toward a bullish status.  The next few days will be critical towards this decision, but if things proceed in the manner they did over the past few days, I think we might see a nice month ahead of us.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012


Today was a very strong day from a price perspective,  We advanced roughly 1.5%, and broke through a previous resistance level which caused a short term higher high to occur.

That's the good news, now the bad ...

I over the last 12 months, you only were in the market today ... you would have done better than if you were in an index fund for the entire 2011 year.  2011 results were roughly flat (slightly negative) which means if you invested on day one, you would have ended the year in roughly the same position.  Another perfect example in my opinion that buy and hold is dead, and that timing the market is everything.