Thursday, November 10, 2011

getting skeptical

Yesterday's weakness coupled with today's lackluster response makes me very nervous.  We are still sitting directly in the middle of the trading range I have been speaking of for a few weeks, whereas yesterday we were at the bottom of this range ... so currently we are still ok, but ... I am seeing little strength in my analysis.

Right now, If the bears want the ball, I think the bulls won't put up much of a fight.  It is not so much that the bears are aggressive, but that the bulls seem to have stopped buying.  The market can fall on its' own weight and unless I see a drastic push up, I am leaning toward this conclusion. 

roughly two weeks ago, I warned of the island top formation which did prove correct, since then we have tried to recover the gains we had and made a valiant attempt but seem to have given up over the past two days.  Each day we have touched the bottom of the trading range and bounced up from there, but each day we only come up about half as far ... so if you look at the highs each day, we are stepping down closer and closer to the bottom of the range. 

Without a strong statement from the bulls, the bears will start to gather in numbers and working together ... we need a strong push up tomorrow, particularly because it is a Friday otherwise I fear we have a strong move down coming.

With all this negative talk, I want to reiterate it is not a time for action as of yet ... We are still in this range which just signifies indecision ... it isn't bearish as of yet, I am just getting ready as the probabilities move closer to that outcome.

Tomorrow is critical.

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