Wednesday, November 9, 2011

not so fast George Banks ...

For any of you that has seen the movie "Father of the Bride", one of my favorite lines in the movie is when Steve Martin is talking in the first few minutes of the movie about how as soon as he 'thought he had it made', he heard a voice call out, "not so fast ..."

My wife came up about an hour ago and saw what the market was doing today and said "wha, wha, whaaaaa".  Think a horn sound effect when something bad happens in a cartoon.

I can't help but chuckle looking at my post last night that said "so I have to think that (knock on wood), the worst is behind us and we can resume the uptrend that we were in earlier this year.  Granted ... now that I said that ... we will probably fall hard from here"  Well apparently I knocked on formica and not wood!

Good ole' news driven markets ... they're tough to predict (really impossible!)

ok, so where does this leave us, except 3% - 5% poorer ... well, sure enough we are back in that darn trading range that we have been in for many weeks.  This is the second time we have bounced out of it and then got slammed back into it.

so ... not much new to say except that as long as we hold the lows of this range, we are still consolidating and waiting it out.  I actually am bullish still at this point, but if the lows do indeed get broken (especially if they close below this number), then I will change my tune quickly.  In order to confidently know the market strength is still intact we need a big bounce tomorrow.  We need to slap the bears in the face.  If we don't get a strong bounce ... uncertainty will remain which will unfortunately keep the volatility high.

Tomorrow shall be interesting to see ...

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